National League Predictions

Since it is the start of the new season, I guess now is as good of a time as any to try some predictions. I think that this year is pretty wide open considering there are at least 18 teams that have legitimate shots at a playoff spot. In fact, I would say that there are only 5 teams that have little to no chance of making the playoffs this year (Seattle, Washington, Pittsburgh, Colorado and San Diego). Hope springs eternal, it is a new year and there is a lot to be optimistic about so let’s get started. I’ll do the National League now and the American League tomorrow.

National League East

It’s going to be a tough race all season between the top 4 teams in this division. Philadelphia brings back the majority of its team from last year lead by their excellent pitching staff and Cole Hamels. They replaced the loss of Pat Burrell with Raul Ibanez. This should be a defensive upgrade but offensively it remains to be seen. Burrell had a better OPS over the last three seasons with a better slugging percentage. Burrell and Ibanez did have a similar OBP over that span so to me; it’s relatively a wash. The big concern here is Ryan Howard.  He has seen a steady decline over the last 3 years in Average, Slugging and OBP while his strikeouts have gone up.  This is a red flag and could be an indication of things to come for the Phils.

The Mets are back and better than before with a rebuilt bullpen. They spent a lot of money in the offseason to get K-rod and Putz to the Big Apple with the hopes that this would lead them to the promised land. While Putz was solid in Seattle, can he do the same in the pressure of New York? And then there’s K-Rod, the master of the cardiac save. New York is going to LOVE him. The Mets also have some questions in their starting pitching. Besides Santana, they have questions that will be answered after the first month. Can someone say Jake Peavy? Offensively, I’m skeptical. Can a team with a platoon in Right AND Left Field make it to the playoffs? And Carlos Delgado isn’t getting any younger.

The Washington Nationals…have Adam Dunn.

The Atlanta Braves are interesting this year. They lost their staff ace(Tim Hudson) to Tommy John surgery but replaced him with Derek Lowe, a good sinkerballer who will benefit from the good Atlanta defense. They picked up Garrett Anderson in the offseason, who will ground out to second base every fourth at bat and has seen his HR totals decline over the last 4 seasons. They have a decent pitching staff, a decent offense and good defense.

Now we have the Florida Marlins, the team of eternal youth. Led by Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla on offense and with a bunch of good young pitching, they are a sleeper in this division. Getting Anibal Sanchez back is huge and if their pitching comes through, they are a threat in this division.

Winner: Phillies

National League Central

Lets eliminate the Pirates from contention right now. They are bad right now and don’t look to be getting better soon. I think the most interesting team in this division is the Reds. They have two great young pitchers in Volquez and Cueto to go along with Aaron Harang and a bullpen led by Francisco Cordero. If their young offensive stars like Jay Bruce and Joey Votto progress and Brandon Phillips has a good season, they could win this thing. Houston should be about a .500 team as long as Berkman, Lee and Oswalt have good seasons. Milwaukee is going to miss Sabathia and Sheets and their offense will have to carry them, which it can. St. Louis should be ok this year as long as Pujols stays healthy. St. Louis will find pitching from somewhere and if Chris Carpenter comes back to form, they will be good. Unfortunately, they are not quite good enough to win. The Cubs have, on paper, the best rotation in the league and a good bullpen. Kevin Gregg should do well replacing Kerry Wood but if he fails, they still have Carlos Marmol. The Cubs should have a great offense again and should win their division again.

Winner: Cubs

National League West

This division looks like a walk for the Dodgers with San Diego being down and Jeff Francis taking any hope that Colorado had with him but there are still some interesting teams in this division. San Francisco did a lot of little things in the offseason to improve. Getting Jeremy Affeldt and Bobby Howry to back up Brian Wilson greatly improves their bullpen and their rotation looks great this year. The Giants have a solid outfield with speed that will help to track balls in the outfield. Their offense plays to their park with gap hitters and and speed, something a certain team down south could learn from. While they don’t have the most talent, they have enough talent to steal some victories from the other teams.

Arizona is another team in this division with a great pitching staff, led by Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. They throw a lot of innings and take pressure off of the rest of the staff. This will be good for hidings their decent but not always reliable bullpen. They should get big production from their young offense and it wasn’t too long ago that these players were in the playoffs.

The Dodgers won this division last year and are the favorites to win it this year.  They have a lot of good offense in their outfield with Manny, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier and a solid infield with Furcal, Orlando Hudson and James Loney. This team will score runs. The only question I have is about the starting pitching. They need Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsly to have good season to win the division and that is never a good sign. Their bullpen is good but will miss Saito and Joe Beimel. While keeping Manny was big, it doesn’t help their pitching.

Winner: Arizona